About This Tracker

What We Track

This tracker monitors Tesla's robotaxi safety performance in Austin, Texas — the only location where Tesla operates fully unsupervised (Level 4) autonomous vehicles. We calculate miles per incident (MPI) using NHTSA incident reports and fleet mileage data.

Data Sources

Incident data: NHTSA Standing General Order 2021-01 reports, which require manufacturers to report crashes within 1-10 days.

Fleet data: robotaxitracker.com for daily vehicle counts, plus Tesla earnings disclosures.

Human baselines: NHTSA CRSS 2023 and Swiss Re/Waymo study.

Methodology

We calculate MPI by dividing estimated fleet miles (fleet size x 115 mi/vehicle/day) by the number of NHTSA-reported incidents. The 115 mi/day figure comes from Tesla's Q3 2025 disclosure of 250,000 cumulative miles.

We fit an exponential trend model to track safety improvement over time, reporting R² fit quality and doubling time estimates.

Limitations

Reporting lag: NHTSA reports can be delayed 1-10+ days, so recent "streak" numbers are provisional.

Fault unknown: SGO reports don't specify fault; some incidents may be other drivers' fault.

Safety monitors: Some Austin vehicles still have monitors who may intervene, potentially inflating safety metrics.